* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 09/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 45 54 66 77 78 82 82 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 45 54 66 77 78 82 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 38 42 44 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 4 6 8 9 11 11 9 18 26 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 346 354 349 6 11 13 12 15 7 359 39 46 46 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 154 156 161 162 162 160 161 159 156 153 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 80 82 81 79 77 78 77 79 81 81 79 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 12 13 16 19 23 22 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 53 48 43 37 24 7 -3 -19 -17 -4 37 67 92 200 MB DIV 92 71 56 66 70 67 67 51 104 124 71 61 58 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 523 504 502 491 480 475 483 498 523 572 632 787 899 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.3 13.7 14.2 15.0 15.5 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.8 97.3 97.9 98.5 99.8 101.4 103.1 104.8 106.6 108.8 111.2 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 6 6 8 8 10 8 10 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 11 13 20 31 40 54 28 19 18 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 16. 14. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 29. 41. 52. 53. 57. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 96.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 09/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.2% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 20.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 43.0% 24.8% 14.8% 6.0% 30.4% 37.7% 52.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 1.2% 3.5% 5.2% Consensus: 1.8% 23.4% 15.7% 5.1% 2.1% 16.6% 20.6% 19.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 09/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX