* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 09/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 40 48 59 71 75 79 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 40 48 59 71 75 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 35 38 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 9 8 15 11 15 16 16 19 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -2 1 0 -1 -3 4 4 7 4 SHEAR DIR 326 334 344 355 357 18 20 355 2 356 36 49 46 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 149 150 150 156 163 164 164 161 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 80 77 75 77 79 78 80 79 73 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 10 12 14 17 21 21 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 49 50 45 32 17 -8 -12 -8 -17 -21 8 40 55 200 MB DIV 83 92 76 57 75 68 50 65 61 90 74 52 54 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 550 560 569 590 608 611 561 486 429 416 510 681 891 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.7 11.3 12.5 13.8 14.9 15.5 15.7 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.5 98.0 98.5 98.9 99.5 99.9 101.0 102.7 105.0 107.6 110.1 112.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 3 3 6 9 11 13 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 8 9 13 26 51 40 23 17 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 17. 24. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 2. 5. 9. 16. 16. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 34. 46. 50. 54. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 96.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 09/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.8% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 14.0% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 5.5% 12.0% 34.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% Consensus: 0.4% 10.2% 7.3% 0.9% 0.4% 6.2% 9.3% 11.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 09/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX