* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 08/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 45 48 47 45 47 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 45 48 47 45 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 34 34 33 31 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 15 15 14 24 24 18 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 4 3 2 0 2 -1 0 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 10 329 323 323 311 298 261 232 196 181 147 61 36 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.8 28.1 27.3 28.0 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 160 161 163 167 171 175 149 139 144 152 153 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 7 8 8 6 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 68 72 73 75 80 81 75 69 66 69 73 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 8 20 7 0 3 36 76 79 80 74 24 6 200 MB DIV 50 79 82 80 94 120 112 54 82 1 22 -16 39 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -5 6 -4 1 1 12 2 -3 LAND (KM) 362 360 316 266 215 156 69 164 319 606 849 997 814 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 15.5 17.5 19.3 20.3 20.0 18.8 16.8 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.7 96.7 97.6 98.4 100.4 103.2 106.8 111.3 115.1 117.4 117.0 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 14 19 21 20 15 10 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 21 32 39 39 30 31 6 4 11 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -3. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 22. 20. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 94.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 22.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 33.4% 21.4% 12.8% 3.9% 35.8% 37.5% 23.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 13.4% 5.2% 1.6% 0.2% 5.2% 2.7% 11.3% Consensus: 2.2% 23.1% 15.8% 4.8% 1.3% 19.9% 20.9% 11.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX