* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 08/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 25 29 34 40 44 45 47 52 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 25 29 34 40 44 45 47 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 25 24 25 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 12 11 17 20 20 21 19 11 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 5 1 5 3 0 -1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 354 337 315 314 294 278 258 210 191 177 129 73 18 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.6 29.3 28.3 28.7 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 161 163 163 168 170 174 160 148 150 153 150 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.0 -53.3 -52.1 -51.8 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 8 6 5 9 6 10 6 6 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 71 68 70 73 75 79 79 74 71 70 71 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 10 8 5 5 39 72 62 48 15 -26 4 200 MB DIV 44 50 92 94 89 117 103 83 57 36 52 51 23 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 1 -3 5 -2 6 5 5 -5 -18 LAND (KM) 335 379 324 288 221 140 60 138 334 511 734 726 528 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 14.1 15.7 17.6 19.3 19.9 19.4 17.9 17.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 95.3 96.5 97.6 98.6 100.5 103.2 106.5 110.2 113.2 114.6 113.4 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 14 17 18 16 13 7 7 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 17 20 30 38 39 28 33 13 8 13 22 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 16. 27. 34. 39. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -6. -11. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 14. 20. 24. 25. 27. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 94.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 18.4% 9.2% 4.8% 1.3% 17.1% 37.3% 28.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% Consensus: 0.7% 7.2% 3.3% 1.7% 0.5% 5.8% 12.6% 9.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX