* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 06/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 45 48 52 53 54 53 49 43 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 45 48 52 53 54 53 49 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 46 46 45 42 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 19 17 15 12 14 14 6 6 3 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 63 65 70 72 73 82 94 99 95 120 258 206 214 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.3 28.4 27.4 26.7 26.7 25.9 25.8 25.7 24.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 149 150 139 131 130 121 120 119 111 113 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -53.7 -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 76 74 72 71 68 65 60 53 48 46 41 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 15 16 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 55 49 51 55 55 71 72 72 56 46 53 69 95 200 MB DIV 50 36 40 66 70 35 12 9 -4 -14 -21 -22 -13 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -5 -5 -4 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 873 891 931 1001 1015 1062 1157 1235 1305 1378 1450 1538 1658 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 12 9 8 7 6 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 37 30 16 12 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 15. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 18. 22. 23. 24. 23. 19. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 108.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 06/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 11.9% 7.3% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 1.7% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 3.9% 4.5% 3.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 06/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX