* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 06/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 45 51 54 55 54 53 52 48 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 45 51 54 55 54 53 52 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 45 47 49 48 47 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 23 23 23 21 24 26 20 14 8 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -5 -6 -8 -3 0 1 4 2 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 83 86 89 90 92 87 71 69 71 44 34 287 257 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.5 27.3 26.6 24.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 156 153 149 146 143 147 148 137 131 108 96 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 80 79 75 73 72 72 69 68 70 70 64 55 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 57 55 55 54 54 43 42 41 32 35 47 52 200 MB DIV 84 53 36 33 55 56 51 58 23 30 22 -15 -18 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 5 4 2 0 -3 -5 -9 -2 -8 -2 LAND (KM) 840 898 964 1040 1110 1216 1221 1141 1009 892 869 915 1029 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.4 14.6 16.2 18.0 19.6 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 109.1 110.5 111.7 112.6 113.9 114.3 114.1 113.9 114.7 116.5 119.2 121.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 10 8 4 2 5 7 11 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 63 38 40 28 18 12 11 11 10 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 406 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 15. 22. 26. 28. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -14. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 21. 24. 25. 24. 23. 22. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 107.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 06/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 15.8% 22.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.0% 7.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 5.3% 7.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 06/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX