* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 06/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 39 48 56 62 67 70 68 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 39 48 56 62 67 70 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 39 44 48 52 55 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 26 23 19 13 8 10 9 14 13 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -6 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 55 50 55 56 52 39 69 72 82 62 76 125 123 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.4 28.3 27.6 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 152 155 155 150 148 140 133 132 130 131 105 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 75 73 72 69 68 65 63 65 66 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 11 11 12 14 17 19 21 24 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 55 57 52 48 37 32 42 57 65 53 54 55 55 200 MB DIV 127 119 92 97 96 40 35 29 48 24 14 22 19 700-850 TADV -10 -17 -10 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 788 796 767 731 716 723 822 879 990 1106 1147 1138 1138 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.5 12.3 13.1 14.6 15.7 16.0 16.1 15.9 16.2 17.0 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.1 105.2 106.2 107.3 109.6 111.8 114.1 116.1 117.5 118.4 119.4 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 5 5 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 37 33 48 56 42 19 18 6 2 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 17. 24. 29. 31. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. 10. 14. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 23. 31. 37. 42. 46. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 103.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 06/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 2.3% 19.8% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 0.1% 7.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 6.6% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 45.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 06/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX