* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 06/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 34 40 50 58 67 69 75 74 75 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 34 40 50 58 67 69 75 74 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 32 37 43 49 55 61 63 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 25 24 21 16 13 12 12 12 13 12 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 1 -4 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 70 56 50 55 56 43 54 66 65 82 64 98 134 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.6 28.1 27.5 26.9 26.6 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 156 155 146 140 144 137 132 129 107 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 81 78 78 77 75 72 70 69 68 67 66 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 11 11 11 13 15 19 19 23 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 58 55 59 53 49 34 43 49 58 59 45 57 57 200 MB DIV 109 128 117 90 95 73 37 33 39 54 5 0 19 700-850 TADV -1 -11 -18 -12 -1 -4 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 763 776 780 752 744 764 868 937 994 1040 1059 1074 1114 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.8 12.5 13.8 14.7 15.1 15.3 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 103.2 104.4 105.6 106.8 109.2 111.5 113.4 115.0 116.2 117.3 118.7 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 13 10 9 7 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 49 36 37 54 56 25 21 10 7 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 7. 7. 13. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 9. 15. 25. 33. 42. 44. 50. 49. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 102.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 06/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 7.0% 2.6% 1.1% 0.9% 4.2% 22.8% 24.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 5.7% Consensus: 0.4% 8.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 1.4% 7.6% 10.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 06/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX