* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 06/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 52 57 59 61 63 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 52 57 59 61 63 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 41 46 50 54 58 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 17 18 22 23 24 21 16 10 7 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 29 51 77 78 78 79 73 66 54 47 68 80 65 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 156 155 151 150 148 148 145 140 133 130 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 80 81 80 78 77 76 74 73 71 69 67 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 56 64 63 57 43 43 43 32 46 52 54 57 200 MB DIV 107 83 46 71 100 63 38 45 49 33 39 38 61 700-850 TADV -9 -1 1 -2 -1 3 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 726 727 768 810 840 902 943 970 998 970 1007 1136 1287 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.6 12.3 13.0 13.9 14.9 15.6 15.7 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 99.8 101.2 102.8 104.2 105.5 108.1 109.9 111.2 112.4 113.7 115.7 117.7 119.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 13 13 11 8 7 8 9 10 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 39 36 35 49 50 46 43 19 11 3 21 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 27. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 99.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 06/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 27.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 06/26/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING