* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 06/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 56 61 64 65 66 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 56 61 64 65 66 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 40 46 51 56 59 60 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 19 15 15 21 16 16 15 11 14 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 2 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 16 19 34 55 51 66 68 59 62 72 67 81 78 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 156 157 158 157 156 153 147 144 142 137 129 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -53.7 -54.7 -53.8 -54.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 -53.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 79 78 77 74 74 70 70 68 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 56 59 62 54 34 34 34 51 54 53 49 200 MB DIV 90 93 105 108 126 101 82 54 35 20 44 2 22 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -5 -9 -2 1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 804 781 748 713 708 707 709 785 870 919 898 976 1051 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.9 9.4 10.1 10.7 11.9 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.8 16.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.2 99.4 100.6 101.9 104.7 107.2 109.4 111.2 112.6 114.1 115.9 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 15 14 12 10 8 8 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 21 32 49 51 55 32 26 17 7 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 31. 36. 39. 40. 41. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 97.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 06/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.73 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 24.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 06/26/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING