* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 06/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 48 56 64 66 71 74 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 48 56 64 66 71 74 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 45 51 58 65 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 22 25 28 27 31 18 13 13 13 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 -4 -9 1 -3 1 0 1 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 42 42 40 45 56 57 60 55 46 61 72 71 70 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 151 152 154 155 151 144 143 141 140 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 82 80 77 76 75 72 70 68 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 13 14 11 12 15 16 19 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 38 44 51 55 62 55 41 25 31 46 64 55 43 200 MB DIV 64 73 61 47 48 96 86 64 32 38 40 23 23 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -6 -6 -8 -11 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 821 829 863 899 929 932 812 670 627 791 919 1011 954 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.5 11.1 13.1 14.9 15.7 15.4 14.9 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 98.0 99.6 101.0 102.1 103.0 104.2 105.3 106.5 108.6 111.4 113.7 114.6 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 10 7 8 12 12 15 13 9 1 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 24 26 26 28 49 59 18 12 9 12 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -14. -15. -14. -14. -13. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 5. 6. 10. 10. 13. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 23. 31. 39. 41. 46. 49. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 98.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 06/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 14.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 06/25/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING