* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 06/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 33 43 51 58 62 64 66 67 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 33 43 51 58 62 64 66 67 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 38 42 46 50 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 15 22 23 18 25 22 14 9 12 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 0 -5 0 0 0 1 0 -1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 14 31 34 40 44 60 60 65 40 45 80 85 79 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.7 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 153 151 151 156 157 153 146 144 143 141 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -53.8 -55.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.5 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 81 80 78 78 75 75 71 70 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 27 36 37 41 53 53 30 30 32 48 54 44 200 MB DIV 66 59 69 68 70 95 105 81 19 22 41 33 25 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -6 -7 -7 -7 3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 824 845 848 864 874 871 795 661 632 759 911 1012 1017 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.4 10.9 12.9 14.5 15.3 15.2 14.8 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 97.5 98.9 100.1 101.0 102.6 104.3 106.0 108.1 110.7 113.0 114.4 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 10 9 10 13 13 13 13 9 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 17 19 24 27 37 62 24 14 13 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 30. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 31. 38. 42. 44. 46. 47. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.0 96.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 06/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 16.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 06/25/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING