* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962017 09/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 34 41 47 50 52 52 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 26 30 36 32 29 32 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 22 23 27 30 28 27 31 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 10 10 13 17 20 20 23 32 33 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 0 4 -1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 5 349 333 341 348 31 62 88 91 96 101 110 108 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 159 161 163 165 163 160 162 164 163 162 161 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 10 8 7 10 7 12 8 13 10 14 9 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 58 60 61 63 64 65 63 66 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 4 4 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 6 13 15 6 -25 -9 7 7 -13 -2 11 16 200 MB DIV 85 97 104 103 91 59 28 59 59 63 27 67 7 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 1 4 4 6 LAND (KM) 191 153 101 54 18 -18 3 7 -18 -20 29 113 207 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.4 15.8 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.3 101.9 101.3 100.5 98.5 97.0 96.6 97.0 98.0 99.6 101.5 103.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 7 9 9 5 1 3 7 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 26 25 18 6 16 12 49 52 26 26 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 9. 16. 22. 25. 27. 27. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 102.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962017 INVEST 09/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.56 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.7% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 18.7% 13.0% 7.7% 4.3% 10.6% 12.8% 33.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 1.4% 14.2% 9.9% 2.6% 1.4% 3.6% 4.4% 11.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962017 INVEST 09/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##