* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962017 09/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 35 40 45 48 51 49 48 49 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 35 30 28 27 27 29 29 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 30 32 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 13 10 16 18 19 19 21 19 17 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 1 0 -3 -6 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 25 1 358 7 359 353 11 27 58 66 69 86 90 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.8 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 162 162 165 163 161 158 156 162 166 164 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 9 7 9 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 62 60 60 64 62 60 58 64 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 13 21 24 -20 3 0 8 -2 22 3 7 200 MB DIV 119 112 101 112 81 33 61 43 23 0 14 -18 -20 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -4 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 5 LAND (KM) 311 274 201 112 25 -70 -98 -120 -76 33 57 -2 -94 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.0 16.7 17.0 18.0 19.1 20.4 21.5 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 102.8 102.5 101.8 100.9 98.7 96.8 95.8 95.3 95.5 96.2 97.3 98.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 10 10 7 5 5 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 32 26 26 15 54 51 47 32 12 18 3 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 19. 18. 19. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 102.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962017 INVEST 09/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.73 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 25.6% 17.1% 13.6% 0.0% 20.1% 18.8% 13.0% Logistic: 2.6% 16.2% 10.6% 7.8% 5.2% 5.6% 7.1% 13.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 999.0% Consensus: 4.2% 14.6% 9.3% 7.2% 1.7% 8.6% 8.9% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962017 INVEST 09/13/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##