* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962017 09/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 38 40 45 49 51 51 51 52 53 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 14 12 11 15 15 11 16 15 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 -4 -5 -2 -3 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 22 12 341 323 306 303 334 18 50 56 82 90 111 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 160 160 164 163 159 157 158 161 164 163 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.0 -51.3 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 9 6 11 8 14 9 15 10 16 700-500 MB RH 71 66 64 63 60 59 56 58 54 56 56 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 4 23 26 -15 -21 -1 8 -2 1 13 20 200 MB DIV 102 114 105 103 92 10 17 7 -11 -11 -28 -8 1 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 312 266 200 128 34 -117 -206 -137 -69 -48 -81 -150 -240 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.2 102.2 101.9 101.4 99.7 97.9 96.8 96.3 96.5 97.3 98.5 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 7 4 3 4 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 46 36 27 26 24 52 54 30 33 34 32 27 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 10. 15. 19. 21. 21. 21. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 101.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962017 INVEST 09/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 82.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 26.3% 17.7% 14.2% 0.0% 21.3% 19.4% 27.3% Logistic: 1.8% 7.4% 4.4% 2.5% 1.1% 10.3% 8.6% 15.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 999.0% Consensus: 4.6% 12.2% 7.5% 5.6% 0.4% 10.6% 9.5% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962017 INVEST 09/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##