* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962017 09/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 46 49 51 52 53 53 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 12 15 15 15 21 19 14 12 13 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 -2 -6 -3 -2 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 26 14 1 333 320 298 298 321 359 10 50 75 93 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 162 161 162 163 160 158 159 161 162 162 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 6 5 7 7 9 8 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 72 71 68 67 65 58 57 58 55 56 57 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -2 -5 -6 4 -1 -7 -10 -12 -8 -17 15 13 200 MB DIV 79 90 95 95 82 70 19 12 22 -7 -14 -14 -18 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 4 0 2 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 334 282 215 154 65 -120 -260 -164 -116 -108 -122 -197 -279 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.7 18.1 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.3 101.1 100.1 98.9 97.9 97.5 97.6 98.0 99.1 100.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 3 1 2 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 31 27 27 53 0 0 32 32 32 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 101.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962017 INVEST 09/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.30 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.22 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 61.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 21.5% 15.4% 12.8% 0.0% 19.9% 17.1% 12.1% Logistic: 3.1% 12.0% 6.0% 3.1% 1.3% 6.8% 6.2% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 1.7% 999.0% Consensus: 4.8% 13.4% 7.4% 5.3% 0.4% 9.2% 8.3% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962017 INVEST 09/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##