* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962017 07/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 37 41 50 59 68 74 77 81 82 80 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 37 41 50 59 68 74 77 81 82 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 35 41 47 54 61 68 74 78 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 8 9 11 8 7 8 5 6 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 1 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 51 46 43 51 39 40 29 49 20 18 316 307 273 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 151 149 149 150 149 145 149 153 152 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 73 71 69 69 71 70 69 68 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -25 -17 -12 -2 -4 0 11 19 16 12 7 3 200 MB DIV 27 16 13 8 15 11 30 50 35 39 39 70 59 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 844 903 953 1020 1086 1254 1378 1506 1644 1782 1930 2135 2380 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.0 11.7 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.2 110.2 111.2 112.1 114.1 116.2 118.0 120.0 122.2 124.8 127.7 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 11 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 27 27 24 20 20 20 24 40 43 22 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 16. 25. 34. 43. 49. 52. 56. 57. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 108.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962017 INVEST 07/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 66.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.3% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 29.7% 14.0% 11.9% 7.6% 20.9% 43.4% 63.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 12.5% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 2.8% 6.8% 2.8% Consensus: 2.1% 20.5% 10.5% 4.2% 2.6% 13.0% 21.5% 21.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962017 INVEST 07/11/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##