* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962017 07/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 40 49 56 64 71 74 78 79 81 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 40 49 56 64 71 74 78 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 45 51 57 63 70 76 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 10 8 10 8 7 4 4 2 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 46 49 48 47 53 42 30 41 13 18 357 308 285 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 154 150 149 151 150 147 147 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 73 71 71 71 72 71 70 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 9 10 11 11 14 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -35 -29 -20 -13 -3 -2 6 12 15 9 7 4 200 MB DIV 20 29 20 17 12 14 5 36 42 45 46 55 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 781 839 895 963 1041 1211 1359 1469 1611 1745 1899 2057 2290 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 11.8 11.6 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.4 109.4 110.5 111.5 113.5 115.4 117.2 119.1 121.2 123.6 126.3 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 13 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 29 26 26 21 19 20 18 39 52 36 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 9. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 24. 31. 39. 46. 49. 53. 54. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 107.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962017 INVEST 07/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 65.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.6% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 25.7% 11.3% 8.9% 5.0% 19.5% 46.2% 66.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 12.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 7.9% 2.9% Consensus: 1.6% 18.8% 9.4% 3.2% 1.7% 12.6% 22.8% 23.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962017 INVEST 07/11/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##