* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962017 07/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 45 53 61 65 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 45 53 61 65 68 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 34 39 44 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 10 11 7 7 6 4 4 6 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 55 38 39 44 35 19 17 34 51 350 357 339 324 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 153 152 151 148 149 149 146 146 152 155 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 76 74 74 73 73 69 70 71 70 71 72 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -40 -32 -26 -19 -6 -3 6 18 21 23 16 11 200 MB DIV 16 16 26 27 22 15 13 32 38 30 54 36 56 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 726 762 815 871 924 1054 1203 1304 1460 1659 1855 2061 2267 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.3 108.3 109.3 110.3 112.1 114.1 116.1 118.3 120.7 123.2 125.8 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 31 32 28 24 21 19 18 21 30 47 45 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 29. 33. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 33. 41. 45. 48. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.4 106.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962017 INVEST 07/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 15.5% 5.4% 3.4% 1.6% 12.4% 33.3% 51.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% 1.4% Consensus: 0.6% 5.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 4.1% 11.6% 17.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962017 INVEST 07/11/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##