* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962017 07/11/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 27 30 37 46 52 59 64 66 68 69 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 27 30 37 46 52 59 64 66 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 33 37 40 44 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 8 7 5 3 1 2 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 2 1 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 67 61 41 39 36 38 21 7 33 30 9 317 10 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.9 28.3 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 152 152 153 149 147 149 148 145 149 154 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 75 75 73 74 72 72 72 71 67 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -45 -39 -31 -26 -13 -1 1 15 18 17 11 8 200 MB DIV 14 9 9 21 35 12 27 35 48 31 34 32 32 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 722 760 815 866 909 1020 1149 1240 1341 1523 1727 1945 2181 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.1 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.4 107.4 108.4 109.3 111.2 113.1 115.0 117.1 119.5 122.2 125.0 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 31 34 31 27 21 18 21 20 28 42 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 29. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 10. 17. 26. 32. 39. 44. 46. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 105.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962017 INVEST 07/11/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 38.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 8.8% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 11.9% 17.6% 35.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 1.4% Consensus: 0.3% 3.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 4.1% 6.1% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962017 INVEST 07/11/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##