* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 09/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 48 47 44 43 36 30 22 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 48 47 44 43 36 30 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 37 35 34 31 26 22 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 9 9 3 5 8 16 19 28 40 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -9 -7 -5 -4 1 1 1 0 3 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 263 284 278 285 298 24 309 255 260 254 256 248 251 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 143 144 144 143 142 140 135 129 124 120 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 52 49 46 45 46 46 45 44 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -5 -2 5 6 3 -25 -11 -9 -19 -22 -14 6 200 MB DIV 38 41 66 78 74 117 66 38 38 31 3 -7 -1 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1875 1832 1792 1781 1779 1838 1958 2036 2079 2095 2075 2034 2000 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.7 13.3 14.4 15.6 17.1 18.3 19.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 139.5 139.9 140.2 140.2 140.1 139.1 137.6 136.4 135.6 135.1 135.1 135.4 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 2 2 3 8 7 8 7 7 6 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 25 24 21 10 10 18 18 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 6. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 18. 17. 14. 13. 6. 0. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 139.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 09/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.70 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.30 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.53 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 165.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.47 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.98 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 26.4% 19.1% 12.9% 0.0% 16.6% 16.8% Logistic: 5.6% 22.0% 18.4% 7.3% 3.7% 19.6% 23.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 5.3% 16.7% 12.7% 6.8% 1.2% 12.1% 13.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 09/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##