* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 09/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 39 46 49 49 45 41 37 34 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 39 46 49 49 45 41 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 31 30 29 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 5 5 5 4 5 5 14 20 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -7 -7 -5 -3 0 2 2 0 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 76 115 229 271 278 305 351 315 281 259 259 267 252 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 147 146 146 146 143 142 142 140 138 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 57 56 55 51 50 54 55 56 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -6 -3 -4 -2 -1 -9 -18 -6 1 5 -1 -15 200 MB DIV 13 22 31 37 52 67 85 81 56 39 4 2 -6 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1911 1830 1773 1727 1694 1697 1788 1911 2008 2060 2059 2022 1918 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.4 13.3 14.3 15.6 16.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 139.0 139.8 140.4 140.9 141.2 141.1 140.0 138.5 137.1 136.2 135.8 136.0 136.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 4 2 2 7 8 8 7 5 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 27 29 30 29 22 11 13 17 15 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 21. 24. 24. 20. 16. 12. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 139.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 09/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.78 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.5% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 32.7% 17.1% 7.4% 3.6% 15.9% 13.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.6% 21.1% 12.5% 2.5% 1.2% 5.3% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 09/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##