* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 09/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 34 39 46 50 50 50 45 40 34 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 34 39 46 50 50 50 45 40 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 34 33 32 30 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 1 3 5 4 5 2 8 11 17 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -7 -9 -8 -3 -4 -1 -1 2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 71 60 66 249 280 285 313 260 284 240 247 245 260 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 146 147 146 147 145 144 143 140 136 130 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 57 56 55 52 49 49 51 48 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 9 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -14 -6 -2 -1 5 -2 0 5 48 19 9 -12 200 MB DIV 23 19 25 34 37 57 89 112 80 69 42 13 2 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 1996 1920 1848 1792 1740 1694 1715 1809 1901 1957 1962 1934 1855 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.9 13.7 14.9 16.1 17.3 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 138.1 138.9 139.6 140.2 140.7 141.0 140.6 139.3 138.0 137.0 136.6 136.6 137.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 2 5 7 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 20 25 27 27 23 13 11 12 11 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 5. 7. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 14. 21. 25. 25. 25. 20. 15. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 138.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 09/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.77 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.36 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 109.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.34 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 19.4% 10.8% 3.3% 1.5% 10.7% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.1% 14.3% 8.9% 1.2% 0.5% 3.6% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 09/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##