* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 09/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 45 51 51 51 48 46 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 45 51 51 51 48 46 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 35 35 35 34 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 1 5 6 6 1 3 4 10 13 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -7 -8 -8 -6 -4 0 0 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 77 72 86 160 237 269 294 312 274 220 238 226 240 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 146 148 148 148 148 145 144 142 140 135 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 56 56 56 55 52 52 54 52 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 5 6 7 8 10 9 10 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 5 4 -1 1 7 9 9 0 -11 14 26 22 9 200 MB DIV 32 19 18 24 33 54 75 94 85 85 77 25 4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2034 1941 1858 1782 1724 1640 1640 1704 1838 1937 1998 1998 1944 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.8 14.9 16.3 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.3 139.1 139.9 140.5 141.4 141.4 140.6 139.0 137.6 136.6 136.2 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 2 2 7 8 8 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 13 18 23 26 26 22 11 12 14 10 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 20. 26. 26. 26. 23. 21. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 137.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 09/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.77 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.94 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 20.5% 14.1% 3.2% 1.5% 12.9% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 15.1% 10.2% 1.1% 0.5% 4.3% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 09/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##