* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 09/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 48 54 61 63 63 61 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 48 54 61 63 63 61 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 40 43 47 50 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 5 3 4 5 4 2 3 3 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -7 -9 -6 -5 -1 0 0 2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 76 80 82 83 132 279 294 350 53 17 118 186 216 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 146 148 149 147 148 149 146 144 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 58 58 57 57 55 51 52 53 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 4 -3 0 8 14 12 4 -7 12 1 2 200 MB DIV 22 31 25 24 26 42 63 73 109 80 88 46 31 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 2097 1985 1888 1811 1736 1630 1581 1599 1713 1864 1971 2057 2098 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.2 13.0 14.1 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 136.8 137.9 138.9 139.7 140.5 141.7 142.3 142.1 140.8 139.1 137.6 136.3 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 4 1 3 8 9 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 14 19 25 30 29 30 29 15 12 18 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 29. 36. 38. 38. 36. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 136.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 09/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.77 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.47 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.5% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 12.8% 10.8% 1.9% 0.9% 12.5% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 12.3% 8.8% 0.7% 0.3% 4.2% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 09/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##