* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 09/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 52 60 66 69 70 71 69 67 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 52 60 66 69 70 71 69 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 41 48 54 59 62 64 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 7 5 4 8 7 8 7 5 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -6 -5 -5 -7 -6 -4 -3 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 64 71 76 71 62 2 358 344 360 9 8 284 239 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 148 148 149 148 148 149 148 146 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 62 62 63 60 58 54 52 55 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 10 11 11 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 0 -3 -10 -2 -10 -6 -7 -17 -20 2 7 200 MB DIV 11 32 38 38 40 47 61 85 77 103 90 70 40 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2156 2006 1897 1810 1742 1646 1591 1591 1661 1788 1917 2016 2045 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 10.9 10.7 10.7 10.8 11.2 12.1 13.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 136.4 138.0 139.2 140.2 141.0 142.3 143.1 143.1 142.2 140.5 138.6 136.9 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 11 9 7 5 2 2 6 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 16 19 27 32 32 29 29 32 29 13 15 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 395 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 27. 35. 41. 44. 45. 46. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 136.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 09/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 92.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 12.3% 8.9% 2.7% 1.2% 11.8% 13.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 10.0% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% Consensus: 2.1% 15.2% 9.5% 1.1% 0.4% 4.1% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 09/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##