* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 09/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 58 63 65 65 65 64 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 58 63 65 65 65 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 39 47 55 60 63 65 65 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 7 7 4 4 6 7 5 4 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -6 -7 -7 -6 -5 -3 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 66 75 80 72 67 75 335 331 323 327 332 239 235 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 145 146 148 149 145 149 149 146 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 61 61 62 60 57 54 51 52 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 12 5 -2 -1 3 3 3 -3 -18 18 27 200 MB DIV 15 11 24 39 29 32 58 78 73 102 83 96 64 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 2305 2152 2034 1932 1841 1703 1615 1580 1609 1710 1843 1957 2023 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.6 13.8 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 134.7 136.2 137.4 138.5 139.5 141.1 142.2 142.6 142.2 140.9 139.1 137.4 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 7 4 0 5 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 14 14 18 31 31 29 30 29 13 14 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 38. 40. 40. 40. 39. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 134.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 09/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.77 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 7.5% 6.3% 1.2% 0.5% 7.4% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 1.5% 12.2% 8.0% 0.5% 0.2% 2.5% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 09/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##