* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 08/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 49 51 53 55 53 51 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 49 51 53 55 53 51 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 34 35 37 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 5 6 6 4 3 8 6 2 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 4 7 SHEAR DIR 28 29 36 41 13 35 315 332 346 42 24 264 315 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 156 154 148 146 147 148 149 148 147 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 60 57 51 47 43 41 43 45 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -3 -4 -9 -20 -21 -18 -22 -24 -12 -11 -8 200 MB DIV 67 62 62 71 63 44 7 -18 -11 -10 -34 -49 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1881 1767 1663 1566 1460 1272 1115 935 775 624 496 505 671 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.5 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 139.5 140.6 141.6 142.4 143.3 144.7 146.1 147.8 149.6 151.7 154.0 156.8 160.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 10 11 12 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 37 38 37 33 31 28 30 27 39 40 50 34 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 29. 31. 33. 35. 33. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 139.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 08/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 10.0% 13.8% 3.1% 1.3% 15.3% 18.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.0% 3.6% 4.7% 1.0% 0.4% 5.1% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 08/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##