* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 07/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 52 63 72 81 87 94 99 100 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 52 63 72 81 87 94 99 100 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 38 43 50 58 70 83 99 109 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 2 0 1 1 3 3 6 10 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 32 62 76 115 101 351 76 120 81 94 69 66 26 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 157 156 152 151 152 151 149 151 154 154 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.8 -52.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 76 77 77 80 79 82 83 82 78 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 16 20 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -27 -33 -35 -38 -25 -13 -4 4 29 45 52 55 200 MB DIV 27 41 36 29 17 29 30 71 83 107 120 119 130 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 896 932 959 1016 1064 1172 1274 1343 1464 1602 1701 1737 1752 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.3 12.3 11.9 11.4 11.1 11.5 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.2 110.0 110.9 111.7 113.2 114.6 116.1 117.6 119.1 120.2 121.2 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 6 5 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 28 28 26 24 22 26 38 39 36 35 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 27. 38. 47. 56. 62. 69. 74. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 108.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 07/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 33.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 40.1% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.4% 73.9% 53.6% 42.9% 30.4% 56.1% 64.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 13.7% 4.8% 1.2% 0.3% 2.6% 3.7% Consensus: 4.0% 42.5% 27.7% 14.7% 10.2% 19.6% 22.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 07/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##