* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 07/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 54 63 67 71 75 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 54 63 67 71 75 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 31 31 33 36 42 49 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 8 8 5 3 1 3 10 18 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 2 5 0 4 0 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 350 338 325 330 318 300 313 31 26 33 43 33 31 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.5 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 159 158 151 149 151 149 154 151 150 151 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 74 75 72 74 76 78 82 86 83 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 10 10 11 12 13 14 18 21 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -30 -27 -28 -27 -28 -26 -7 7 22 46 54 36 200 MB DIV 51 28 41 30 25 6 11 48 98 83 138 109 137 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -5 -6 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 774 785 798 821 870 1038 1145 1326 1518 1730 1849 1848 1685 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 13.9 13.4 12.5 11.0 9.8 9.6 10.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.7 108.5 109.4 110.5 113.0 115.3 117.6 119.3 120.5 120.7 120.4 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 12 11 12 10 10 8 4 4 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 28 22 22 22 12 17 36 40 39 45 46 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 29. 38. 42. 46. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 107.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 07/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.42 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 36.3% 19.3% 10.2% 4.6% 18.6% 25.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 12.6% 4.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 5.1% Consensus: 1.4% 25.0% 14.4% 3.6% 1.6% 6.4% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 07/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##