* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 09/25/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 47 56 77 93 103 105 106 104 103 93 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 47 56 77 93 103 105 106 104 103 93 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 42 47 64 83 99 106 106 103 93 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 10 10 8 10 6 3 4 1 6 6 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 2 1 2 1 2 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 65 29 42 64 64 40 27 85 315 236 187 198 183 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 158 156 153 151 151 150 148 144 138 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 73 71 69 71 70 66 62 60 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 21 25 29 31 33 34 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 35 30 34 35 33 28 34 48 40 39 34 25 35 200 MB DIV 97 92 79 75 80 71 30 42 26 27 42 33 61 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 1 0 -2 -2 -6 -5 -3 1 4 LAND (KM) 574 576 577 599 631 759 796 829 880 905 867 861 877 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 28 28 24 21 21 25 16 13 10 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 45.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 33. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 20. 16. 8. 1. -4. -8. -11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 26. 47. 63. 73. 75. 76. 74. 73. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 106.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 09/25/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 34.9% 27.3% 18.7% 12.9% 22.6% 30.1% 37.4% Logistic: 23.5% 64.7% 51.3% 36.0% 39.7% 64.6% 79.1% 56.9% Bayesian: 5.6% 52.9% 39.1% 19.9% 5.7% 42.1% 42.1% 29.7% Consensus: 15.1% 50.9% 39.2% 24.9% 19.4% 43.1% 50.4% 41.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 39.0% 27.0% 14.0% 4.0% 24.0% 62.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 09/25/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX