* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 11/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 29 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 29 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 18 22 19 22 27 32 26 20 16 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 2 3 2 -3 -3 -1 6 10 10 4 SHEAR DIR 245 251 259 267 272 237 230 237 247 236 247 226 247 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 151 150 148 148 146 140 134 137 139 139 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 60 61 58 56 54 48 41 38 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 17 18 18 18 14 12 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 5 -4 -17 4 5 13 -9 -15 8 7 -12 200 MB DIV 103 109 100 61 29 60 17 -5 -28 0 -4 -2 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 1 4 1 0 1 2 6 4 7 LAND (KM) 720 660 602 549 497 379 270 206 177 199 272 365 459 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 3 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 20 20 20 19 17 17 11 7 15 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -17. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 109.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 11/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 19.3% 11.7% 10.7% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.4% 4.4% 3.7% 0.0% 4.7% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 11/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX