* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 22 20 17 19 24 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 34 31 32 30 29 31 40 48 58 58 50 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 6 4 2 4 0 4 5 -3 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 241 249 255 254 261 263 263 269 270 266 276 275 281 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 29.2 30.0 29.8 25.5 26.0 26.3 26.8 26.1 22.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 159 168 165 120 125 128 134 128 91 132 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.9 -56.8 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 6 3 9 10 12 9 8 4 700-500 MB RH 69 62 61 61 57 56 56 48 38 37 38 42 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 12 30 48 39 48 21 3 -47 -76 -137 -172 -174 200 MB DIV 66 66 63 48 10 0 -6 2 8 25 1 23 -3 700-850 TADV 9 8 9 6 2 4 8 27 27 12 24 20 8 LAND (KM) 611 532 399 252 150 -158 10 249 143 263 324 -29 485 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 18.0 19.4 20.7 22.2 23.9 26.4 28.8 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 106.8 105.4 103.7 102.1 99.0 96.1 93.4 90.8 88.6 85.7 81.2 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 15 21 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 24 32 39 17 0 17 3 4 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 902 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -14. -27. -41. -54. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -10. -17. -20. -23. -26. -30. -35. -35. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 107.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX