* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 22 20 17 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 35 40 40 41 38 39 48 63 59 67 61 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 2 7 6 7 3 2 -6 1 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 237 244 251 252 253 272 272 273 276 269 278 297 315 SST (C) 28.6 28.1 28.6 30.2 30.7 24.8 25.6 26.1 24.0 18.6 17.1 16.4 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 153 171 175 114 122 127 108 69 69 69 70 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.9 -55.1 -57.6 -59.6 -61.2 -62.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 71 65 64 63 61 61 55 58 65 64 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -3 26 35 23 -3 -31 -33 -56 -68 -87 -65 -65 200 MB DIV 81 69 64 79 87 4 4 5 46 90 52 35 25 700-850 TADV 10 13 20 13 1 7 23 38 103 154 196 140 166 LAND (KM) 594 493 335 124 -46 -103 263 451 179 -61 192 729 996 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.8 15.8 17.1 18.3 20.9 22.8 24.7 27.7 31.4 34.4 36.2 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 106.2 105.1 103.5 101.7 98.3 95.0 92.1 88.4 82.0 74.2 65.8 56.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 17 20 21 19 17 18 28 36 35 37 40 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 25 23 19 2 10 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 803 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 3. 10. 17. 23. 26. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -20. -38. -57. -74. -80. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 24. 36. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -17. -21. -27. -33. -38. -36. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 106.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX