* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 18 22 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 29 37 41 45 44 41 44 54 62 59 65 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 4 0 4 7 5 7 5 -3 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 220 228 243 252 253 266 277 278 275 276 269 282 299 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.9 30.7 24.8 25.9 26.1 25.8 24.0 19.5 17.0 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 157 175 115 125 126 125 109 68 68 69 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -54.4 -56.5 -59.0 -60.7 -62.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 2 4 3 5 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 76 72 68 64 62 63 56 53 60 61 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 7 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -42 -12 10 11 -4 -40 -51 -67 -91 -109 -91 -71 200 MB DIV 67 79 73 59 67 31 0 -27 10 56 86 33 50 700-850 TADV 3 7 13 19 11 9 22 32 44 97 98 128 124 LAND (KM) 672 574 440 271 78 -226 175 430 334 73 96 410 858 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.7 14.7 15.8 17.3 20.3 22.5 24.1 26.1 29.1 32.2 34.5 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 105.8 105.1 103.9 102.5 99.3 95.8 92.8 90.0 85.7 79.1 71.6 63.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 14 18 21 21 17 15 19 30 33 34 35 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 28 31 27 0 10 14 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 10. 17. 23. 27. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -20. -37. -55. -69. -76. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 25. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -17. -21. -26. -33. -38. -38. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 106.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX