* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 18 21 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 25 32 39 44 53 48 48 49 60 59 65 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 10 7 4 3 -1 4 8 2 3 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 216 223 235 240 242 246 271 274 269 271 267 273 294 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.1 28.4 30.5 27.7 25.0 25.9 25.5 24.3 18.7 16.8 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 147 151 174 145 115 123 120 111 68 69 69 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -53.9 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.9 -55.5 -57.7 -59.9 -61.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 5 4 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 79 75 73 68 66 62 53 46 51 59 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 8 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -42 -27 8 12 7 -36 -45 -43 -50 -63 -73 -47 200 MB DIV 20 72 96 79 53 72 43 -11 -4 43 96 55 54 700-850 TADV 2 3 11 12 11 10 17 18 26 74 102 95 163 LAND (KM) 715 623 489 320 126 -297 72 301 455 168 -108 181 763 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.2 14.3 15.5 16.9 20.3 22.9 24.0 25.3 27.6 30.6 33.4 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 105.8 105.3 104.3 103.1 100.1 97.1 94.8 92.7 89.1 83.0 75.5 66.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 14 17 20 21 15 11 15 26 33 36 38 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 28 30 28 4 0 13 1 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 10. 17. 23. 27. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -22. -38. -55. -69. -75. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -16. -22. -29. -35. -40. -41. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 105.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX