* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 18 24 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 26 31 42 52 47 48 52 62 62 67 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 10 9 1 5 0 3 7 0 1 -3 -9 SHEAR DIR 216 224 231 232 237 238 263 270 268 268 269 265 284 SST (C) 28.5 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 24.4 24.9 25.0 25.0 22.6 16.8 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 155 156 156 156 154 109 112 113 117 96 70 70 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.4 -54.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -54.7 -56.8 -59.8 -61.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 1 4 3 7 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 78 77 74 66 62 53 44 47 55 64 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 8 6 4 4 4 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -38 -42 -22 5 17 -17 -34 -41 -31 -21 -2 -33 200 MB DIV 7 22 85 107 83 77 44 8 -12 37 87 143 77 700-850 TADV 0 3 6 11 15 2 22 16 11 42 83 213 220 LAND (KM) 816 733 612 463 276 -159 -127 112 238 300 38 -63 396 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.9 13.0 14.3 15.8 19.4 22.8 24.2 25.0 26.8 30.1 34.3 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 105.4 105.2 104.8 104.0 101.7 99.1 96.7 95.0 92.4 87.1 79.0 69.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 15 18 23 17 10 10 21 35 42 44 HEAT CONTENT 14 23 32 30 30 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 10. 17. 22. 26. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -19. -35. -52. -67. -73. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 25. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -20. -26. -34. -39. -38. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 105.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX