* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 20 20 24 27 32 32 30 26 26 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 20 20 24 27 32 32 30 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 20 17 16 17 18 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 18 13 10 7 5 4 9 19 27 37 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 4 4 0 5 13 9 11 10 20 13 SHEAR DIR 161 163 152 153 168 109 61 6 323 302 295 258 243 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 27.0 28.2 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 135 133 131 132 146 154 155 153 150 157 155 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 65 65 60 57 49 42 43 49 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 21 12 6 0 -6 -18 -13 -9 -5 -14 -24 -38 -38 200 MB DIV 27 9 0 5 -1 6 7 15 -19 -38 -34 -37 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 2680 2643 2584 2530 2466 2373 2314 2284 2277 2275 2256 2199 2096 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.6 10.9 10.8 9.9 8.5 6.9 5.5 4.6 4.1 4.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.9 132.3 132.7 133.1 133.6 134.6 135.7 136.9 138.2 139.5 140.7 142.1 143.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 10 10 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 4 3 2 3 9 17 51 80 65 70 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -1. 2. 7. 7. 5. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 131.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.29 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.1% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.6% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 3.9% 4.5% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX