* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 20 19 17 18 22 27 31 31 27 26 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 20 19 17 18 22 27 31 31 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 23 19 13 7 6 8 12 17 23 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 6 4 5 9 7 8 7 11 SHEAR DIR 146 151 157 160 150 151 101 64 20 325 299 287 280 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.9 28.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 137 131 126 128 132 143 146 147 153 150 154 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 64 64 63 58 58 50 47 43 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 13 7 -1 -13 -26 -18 -20 -7 -8 -20 -36 200 MB DIV 48 48 27 1 -8 -17 -7 -17 -4 -10 -19 -29 -28 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 2590 2591 2577 2572 2575 2551 2461 2396 2367 2341 2322 2294 2232 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.2 10.8 9.8 8.2 6.6 5.3 4.5 4.2 LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.0 131.1 131.4 131.7 132.6 133.7 134.9 136.2 137.7 139.1 140.3 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 9 11 11 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 6 3 1 0 2 6 13 49 80 61 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. -3. 2. 7. 6. 2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 130.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 3.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX