* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 20 18 16 16 18 23 26 27 24 23 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 20 18 16 16 18 23 26 27 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 26 25 21 12 5 3 10 15 28 36 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 3 2 4 7 7 11 7 9 8 15 SHEAR DIR 152 147 150 156 159 162 162 42 354 325 316 293 291 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.9 27.5 28.1 28.1 29.0 28.8 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 144 141 137 127 131 138 145 146 155 152 156 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 67 64 62 57 57 53 47 40 36 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 15 12 5 0 -13 -23 -22 -21 -21 -13 -21 -37 200 MB DIV 44 45 47 30 8 -17 -24 -10 8 -23 -34 -50 -49 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 2574 2574 2558 2552 2554 2599 2535 2448 2383 2343 2316 2277 2229 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.7 10.7 9.9 8.7 7.2 5.8 4.7 4.0 LONG(DEG W) 130.2 130.4 130.5 130.7 131.0 131.9 133.0 134.3 135.7 137.2 138.7 140.3 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 8 10 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 20 13 8 4 1 1 6 11 27 83 66 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -2. 1. 2. -1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 130.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX