* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 27 30 30 21 11 5 5 12 17 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 7 8 10 8 SHEAR DIR 167 167 160 163 167 178 182 196 347 8 329 324 307 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 137 134 131 127 129 129 129 149 147 147 158 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 5 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 77 73 69 66 65 59 56 50 51 48 41 36 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 28 24 24 11 5 2 7 0 5 1 -5 200 MB DIV 37 44 51 45 21 9 -33 -22 -11 -17 -43 -45 -46 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2495 2481 2452 2430 2434 2436 2486 2384 2314 2272 2238 2201 2165 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.5 11.4 9.8 8.1 6.9 6.0 LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.3 130.3 130.4 130.7 131.5 132.6 133.7 134.9 136.2 137.7 139.1 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 9 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 8 21 70 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -10. -8. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 130.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX