* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 10/31/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 30 29 27 27 29 33 35 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 30 29 27 27 29 33 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 22 20 18 17 18 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 12 12 15 13 13 2 3 3 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -6 -1 1 3 1 -1 2 6 12 6 8 SHEAR DIR 180 161 160 146 146 158 164 167 160 105 11 346 342 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 145 144 143 134 133 127 125 129 130 134 140 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 81 83 81 80 77 71 65 58 50 45 41 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 46 57 56 53 43 29 19 14 14 0 2 0 200 MB DIV 45 67 97 81 75 66 -1 -32 4 6 -11 -46 -47 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 3 2 1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2451 2480 2464 2424 2378 2263 2191 2150 2162 2289 2495 2624 2586 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.7 11.9 13.0 13.9 14.1 13.1 11.5 9.9 8.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.5 129.1 129.3 129.3 129.2 128.9 129.0 129.4 129.8 130.4 131.4 132.5 133.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 3 8 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 14 11 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 5 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 128.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 10/31/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 5.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 2.2% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.6% 5.5% 0.2% 0.1% 4.5% 5.1% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 10/31/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX