* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 10/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 32 29 28 25 20 17 15 16 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 32 29 28 25 20 17 15 16 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 13 14 17 20 21 23 18 9 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 1 -1 -1 6 4 3 3 0 2 7 SHEAR DIR 262 240 226 208 176 170 168 177 181 219 273 304 331 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.2 25.1 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 138 139 138 133 124 112 111 114 120 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -55.4 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -54.8 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 78 80 80 80 81 78 70 65 60 53 46 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 12 10 9 7 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -2 12 17 33 49 65 65 49 38 34 20 19 8 200 MB DIV 77 80 60 66 93 89 61 27 -8 -27 -16 -39 -48 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2245 2288 2289 2269 2229 2170 2093 2039 2020 2036 2115 2292 2415 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.9 10.5 11.3 12.6 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.2 16.0 14.7 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.6 127.2 127.6 127.9 128.4 128.6 128.9 129.5 130.3 131.1 132.1 133.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 16 12 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 4. 3. 0. -5. -8. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 125.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 10/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.34 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.5% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.4% 5.7% 0.2% 0.0% 4.4% 4.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 10/31/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX