* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 10/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 27 28 25 27 25 22 19 18 20 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 27 28 25 27 25 22 19 18 20 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 17 16 16 20 19 20 16 19 7 6 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 8 7 2 1 4 6 9 4 2 3 6 SHEAR DIR 258 249 234 221 202 175 169 181 177 201 268 297 339 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.4 25.6 25.1 25.0 25.2 26.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 139 138 134 125 116 110 109 112 124 129 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 79 79 79 79 77 73 69 64 63 55 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 11 13 10 13 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 12 23 35 71 67 49 27 15 5 7 -7 200 MB DIV 67 99 126 81 68 103 43 45 25 -10 -10 -6 -33 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 3 6 5 2 1 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2137 2184 2197 2192 2190 2179 2138 2095 2069 2036 2074 2206 2436 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.3 10.9 11.5 12.7 13.7 14.3 14.7 15.3 15.3 14.3 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.6 126.4 127.0 127.6 128.6 129.0 129.1 129.2 129.4 129.9 130.6 131.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 7 4 3 3 3 3 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 9 8 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 4. 7. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 0. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 124.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 10/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.20 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.8% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 3.8% 4.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 10/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX