* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 10/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 30 31 35 34 33 27 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 30 31 35 34 33 27 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 16 24 26 24 27 33 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 5 8 6 0 0 9 8 8 7 8 SHEAR DIR 265 264 244 235 232 211 192 193 183 179 204 249 273 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 26.9 24.7 25.3 26.1 26.7 25.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 144 143 142 133 109 115 124 130 115 109 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 78 79 79 77 71 65 58 54 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 12 12 12 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -10 -6 9 36 62 60 50 38 35 20 3 200 MB DIV 75 62 53 74 117 57 77 37 66 26 -9 -27 -35 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 9 6 4 3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1995 2051 2081 2099 2104 2089 2092 2078 2035 1998 1959 1941 1985 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.4 11.7 13.1 14.5 15.9 17.3 18.8 20.0 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.1 123.9 124.6 125.2 126.5 127.9 129.1 130.0 130.8 131.5 132.1 132.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 9 10 9 8 9 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 15 12 10 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 4. 3. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 10. 9. 8. 2. -5. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 122.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 10/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.3% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 28.4% 10.9% 7.0% 1.5% 5.8% 2.0% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 17.7% 9.6% 2.4% 0.5% 6.8% 5.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 10/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX