* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 09/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 17 16 16 17 18 21 25 29 31 32 32 V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 16 16 17 18 21 25 29 31 32 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 19 18 16 18 15 14 15 15 8 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 5 1 -3 3 -1 2 0 -3 -4 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 106 105 109 112 105 104 109 102 87 107 142 160 176 SST (C) 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.3 29.9 29.5 29.2 28.6 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 170 167 164 160 157 151 144 140 140 141 146 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 12 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 56 58 57 58 57 59 58 59 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 36 42 55 59 45 48 36 43 36 27 27 24 30 200 MB DIV 0 0 9 15 1 9 -3 9 -9 2 -16 -27 -36 700-850 TADV 5 2 2 4 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 -3 LAND (KM) 210 260 294 283 292 403 598 775 1013 1273 1537 1792 2035 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.5 18.7 18.0 17.1 16.3 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.2 108.8 109.5 110.4 112.6 114.8 117.2 119.6 122.2 124.6 127.2 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 13 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 29 25 20 15 9 9 8 17 2 4 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -6. -1. 7. 17. 27. 33. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.2 107.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 09/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.98 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 09/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX