* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 16 16 17 18 22 26 28 29 29 29 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 16 16 17 18 22 26 28 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 19 19 16 17 13 14 13 13 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 1 4 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 -4 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 101 101 101 107 110 101 100 96 100 96 129 143 167 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.4 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 170 169 168 162 159 154 148 142 140 139 138 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 12 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 56 56 56 57 57 57 57 54 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 41 55 53 42 37 42 40 28 22 14 13 200 MB DIV 12 -3 -4 5 13 3 9 3 0 -3 7 -31 -26 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 3 4 1 1 0 1 0 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 158 198 261 274 263 313 470 647 839 1061 1300 1530 1727 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.6 20.4 20.2 19.9 19.4 18.8 18.1 17.5 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.6 108.2 108.8 109.4 111.4 113.5 115.7 118.0 120.3 122.6 124.9 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 36 31 25 21 11 10 10 5 19 2 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -6. -2. 6. 17. 27. 34. 38. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 2. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.2 107.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.99 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX