* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 17 17 21 23 28 30 33 33 32 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 17 17 21 23 28 30 33 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 17 16 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 16 20 17 18 16 17 13 13 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 0 3 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 103 102 107 105 109 105 101 101 96 89 113 130 144 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.6 30.5 29.9 29.4 29.2 28.6 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 167 169 168 164 159 157 151 144 139 138 140 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 11 12 8 8 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 58 56 58 59 59 57 59 55 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 38 42 39 48 53 46 49 39 55 57 48 42 24 200 MB DIV 11 13 -3 -3 3 8 21 5 0 -11 -14 -15 -40 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 3 3 2 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 133 158 210 271 304 303 416 615 800 1016 1236 1432 1613 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.2 19.9 19.4 19.0 18.2 17.5 16.9 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.2 107.7 108.3 108.8 110.4 112.4 114.6 116.9 119.1 121.3 123.2 125.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 6 9 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 42 36 30 26 14 11 12 11 12 0 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -5. -6. -2. 6. 17. 27. 34. 38. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. -7. -10. -12. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 1. 3. 8. 10. 13. 13. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 106.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.99 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 1.8% 0.8% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX