* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 09/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 22 23 26 30 33 35 36 39 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 22 23 26 30 33 35 36 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 22 21 23 22 24 19 19 14 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 -2 2 -3 -1 -3 0 -5 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 96 101 101 107 109 104 97 96 86 77 78 103 125 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 163 164 162 159 157 153 148 144 140 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 10 9 11 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 61 62 60 64 63 65 64 65 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 39 55 48 61 51 57 63 76 76 64 50 200 MB DIV 6 -5 10 15 6 7 0 37 15 0 -19 -19 -18 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 4 5 2 2 1 -1 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 190 201 218 251 293 389 457 552 695 831 967 1071 1161 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.2 18.8 18.3 17.7 17.4 17.1 17.1 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.3 107.5 107.8 108.2 109.2 110.3 112.0 113.7 115.4 116.9 118.5 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 5 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 52 48 43 35 28 17 11 12 13 12 8 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 7. 17. 27. 34. 38. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -11. -16. -19. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 15. 16. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.3 107.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 09/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 1.8% 4.8% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.6% 1.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 09/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX