* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/31/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 57 64 68 71 71 67 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 57 64 68 71 71 67 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 45 49 53 57 61 62 60 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 8 11 12 12 5 10 7 12 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 2 0 -3 -3 -3 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 55 63 62 58 49 52 51 27 359 328 304 288 285 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.1 27.1 26.9 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 147 145 142 135 135 134 140 143 142 136 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 66 64 62 57 56 57 58 58 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -25 -25 -25 -15 -4 3 21 14 30 34 42 35 200 MB DIV 4 2 17 42 46 56 63 64 33 27 -35 -20 -17 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 -1 0 -6 -7 -6 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 1324 1356 1398 1457 1522 1647 1761 1937 2135 2338 2340 2119 1912 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 12 11 14 26 28 9 9 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 27. 34. 38. 41. 41. 37. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 116.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/31/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 21.1% 19.9% 13.6% 8.8% 16.5% 18.5% 11.3% Logistic: 10.7% 32.8% 17.1% 10.0% 2.9% 9.3% 5.1% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 19.9% 12.5% 7.9% 3.9% 8.9% 8.3% 6.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/31/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX